On the Oil Price Uncertainty

Zied Ftiti and Fredj Jawadi
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Zied Ftiti () and Fredj JAWADI

The Energy Journal, 2019, vol. Volume 40, issue Special Issue

Abstract: This study focuses on oil price volatility and uncertainty over the period January 1986-December 2018, covering episodes of oil price increases and collapses. Accordingly, in line with Poon and Granger (2003), and Terasvirta and Zhao (2011), we propose three different specifications of stochastic oil volatility: standard stochastic volatility, stochastic volatility moving average, leverage stochastic volatility models. We compute the out-of-sample forecasts for the uncertainty in oil prices using the estimates for these three stochastic oil price volatility models and we discuss its effects. Our findings show that the standard stochastic volatility model outperforms the other two models when focusing on oil price uncertainty. This finding is relevant to better forecast and understand the effects of oil price uncertainty on the real economy.

JEL-codes: F0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.iaee.org/en/publications/ejarticle.aspx?id=3227 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to IAEE members and subscribers.

Related works:
Journal Article: On the Oil Price Uncertainty (2019)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aen:journl:ej40-si2-ftiti

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.iaee.org/en/publications/ejsearch.aspx

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in The Energy Journal from International Association for Energy Economics Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by David Williams ().