Representing GASPEC with the World Gas Model

Ruud Egging, Franziska Holz, Christian von Hirschhausen and Steven A. Gabriel
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Rudolf Gerardus Egging-Bratseth and Franziska Holz

The Energy Journal, 2009, vol. Volume 30, issue Special Issue, 97-118

Abstract: This paper presents results of simulating a more collusive behavior of a group of natural gas producing and exporting countries, sometimes called GASPEC. We use the World Gas Model, a dynamic, strategic representation of world gas production, trade, and consumption between 2005 and 2030. In particular, we simulate a closer cooperation of the GASPEC countries when exporting pipeline gas and liquefied natural gas; we also run a more drastic scenario where GASPEC countries deliberately hold back production. The results show that compared to our Base Case, a gas cartel would reduce total supplied quantities and induce price increases in gas importing countries up to 22%. There is evidence that the natural gas markets in Europe and North America would be affected more than other parts of the world. Lastly, the vulnerability of gas importers worldwide is further illustrated by the results of a sensitivity case in which price levels are up to 87% higher in Europe and North America.

JEL-codes: F0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (24)

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Working Paper: Representing GASPEC with the World Gas Model (2008)
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