Accuracy and Properties of German Business Cycle Forecasts
Steffen Osterloh ()
Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), 2008, vol. 54, issue 1, 27-57
In this paper the accuracy of a wide range of German business cycle forecasters is assessed for the period from 1995 to 2005. For this purpose, a data set is used comprising forecasts published on a monthly basis by Consensus Economics. The application of several descriptive as well as statistical measures reveals that the accuracy of the 2-years forecasts is low relative to a simple naïve forecast. This observation can mainly be explained by a systematic overestimation of the growth rates by the forecasters. Moreover, the lack of accuracy can also be explained partly by insufficient information efficiency as well as imitation behaviour. Finally, it is shown that notwithstanding the common errors which affected the accuracy of all forecasters mainly because of their systematic overestimation, they differ significantly in their forecast accuracy.
Keywords: business cycle forecasting; forecast evaluation; Consensus forecasts (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C52 E32 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8) Track citations by RSS feed
There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it.
Working Paper: Accuracy and properties of German business cycle forecasts (2006)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aeq:aeqaeq:v54_y2008_i1_q1_p27-57
Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.duncker-h ... nomicsquarterly.html
Access Statistics for this article
Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik) is currently edited by Ansgar Belke, Uwe Sunde and Winfried Koeniger
More articles in Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik) from Duncker & Humblot, Berlin
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Deborah Anne Bowen ().