Explaining Differences Between the Expected and Actual Duration Until Return Migration: Economic Changes

Gerard van den Berg and Michèle A. Weynandt

Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, 2013, vol. 133, issue 2, 249-261

Abstract: This paper explores the difference between intentions and realizations in return migration with the help of a duration model. Using the SOEP the results lend support to the fact that people use simplifying heuristics when trying to forecast the future; their return intentions indicate bunching in heaps of 5 years. Along these lines we find that migrated individuals systematically underestimate the length of their stay in the receiving country. We find that the difference decreases the older one gets, but is larger the more disadvantaged one feels due to ones origin as an example. The robustness checks show that the results do not hinge on a single definition, or set of explaining variables. The consistency in the underestimation may have important policy and modeling implications.

JEL-codes: C41 D84 F22 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://dx.doi.org/10.3790/schm.133.2.249 (application/pdf)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers (2008 onwards); Pay-per-view access from http://www.genios.de (2000 onwards with 2 years moving wall) and http://ejournals.duncker-humblot.de/loi/schm (2008 onwards)

Related works:
Working Paper: Explaining Differences between the Expected and Actual Duration until Return Migration: Economic Changes (2012)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aeq:aeqsjb:v133_y2013_i2_q2_p249-261

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.duncker-h ... llersjahrbuch-1.html

Access Statistics for this article

Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften is currently edited by Gert G. Wagner and Joachim Wagner

More articles in Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften from Duncker & Humblot, Berlin
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Gabriele Freudenmann ( this e-mail address is bad, please contact ).