Key forces behind the decline of fertility: lessons from childlessness in Rouen before the industrial revolution

Sandra Brée and David de la Croix
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Sandra Brée: Centre for Demographic Research, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium

Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, 2019, vol. 13, issue 1, 25-54

Abstract: To better understand the forces underlying fertility decisions, we look at the forerunners of fertility decline. In Rouen, France, completed fertility dropped between 1640 and 1792 from 7.4 to 4.2 children. We review possible explanations and keep only three: increases in materialism, in women’s empowerment, and in returns to education. The methodology is one of analytic narrative, bringing together descriptive evidence with a theoretical model. We accordingly propose a theory showing that we can discriminate between these explanations by looking at childlessness and its social gradient. An increase in materialism or, under certain conditions, in women’s empowerment, leads to an increase in childlessness, while an increase in the return to education leads to a decrease in childlessness. Looking at the Rouen data, childlessness was clearly on the rise, from 4% in 1640 to 10% at the end of the eighteenth century, which appears to discredit the explanation based on increasing returns to education, at least for this period.

Keywords: Demographic transition; Childlessness; Quality-quantity trade-off; Forerunners; Women’s empowerment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J13 N33 O11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (20)

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Journal Article: Key forces behind the decline of fertility: lessons from childlessness in Rouen before the industrial revolution (2019)
Working Paper: Key forces behind the decline of fertility: lessons from childlessness in Rouen before the industrial revolution (2017)
Working Paper: Key Forces Behind the Decline of Fertility: Lessons from Childlessness in Rouen before the Industrial Revolution (2016)
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