Influenza pandemics and macroeconomic fluctuations 1871–2016

Fraser Summerfield and Livio Di Matteo

Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, 2024, vol. 18, issue 2, 405-451

Abstract: This paper documents the short-run macroeconomic impacts of influenza pandemics across 16 countries spanning 1871–2016 using the Jordà–Schularick–Taylor Macrohistory Database and the Human Mortality Database. We find pandemic-induced mortality contributed meaningfully to business cycle fluctuations in the post 1870 era. We identify negative causal impacts on the cyclical component of GDP using pandemics to instrument for working-age mortality. The analysis of short-run economic outcomes extends literature dominated by long-run economic growth outcomes and case studies of several specific health shocks such as the Black Death, Spanish Flu or COVID-19. Our findings illustrate that less catastrophic pandemics still have important economic implications.

Keywords: Pandemics; ·; Business; cycles; ·; Mortality; ·; GDP; fuctuations; ·; Health; shocks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 I18 N10 N30 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:afc:cliome:v:18:y:2024:i:2:p:405-451

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