Modelling trends and cycles in economic time series: historical perspective and future developments

Terence C. Mills ()
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Terence C. Mills: Department of Economics, Loughborough University, Loughborough, UK

Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, 2009, vol. 3, issue 3, 221-244

Abstract: This paper provides a retrospective on the modelling of trends and cycles in economic time series and considers where the research agenda currently stands and where future developments might lie. A brief survey of the early empirical research on trends and cycles is first provided before attention is focused on four papers published in 1961—our ‘annus mirabilis’ of trend and cycle modelling—which we argue have been ‘prime movers’ in various aspects of research in this area. The links from these papers to current research issues are then teased out before the likely future directions of research in both theoretical and applied aspects of the modelling of trends and cycles are considered.

Keywords: Cycles; Decompositions; Time series; Trends (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 E27 E32 N1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:afc:cliome:v:3:y:2009:i:3:p:221-244

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