Immunity from the resource curse? The long run impact of commodity price volatility: evidence from Canada, 1900–2005

Ian Keay

Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, 2015, vol. 9, issue 3, 333-358

Abstract: This paper documents the channels through which commodity price volatility can affect resource intensive industries’ investment decisions, production levels and profitability. Over the very long run, the Canadian forestry sector was not immune from the negative effects of commodity price volatility. However, the long run averages mask dynamic and asymmetric patterns in the sector’s responses to price volatility. The supply of investment funds from formal-external sources was suppressed during episodes of high and rising commodity price volatility, but insensitive to low and falling volatility. These effects weakened as the economy matured. The accumulation of reproducible and natural capital was affected by commodity price volatility through an investment supply channel that was also asymmetric, but in this case, the effect was strongest during low and falling volatility. These results show how a maturing economy with diversified investment opportunities can become increasingly immune from the negative effects of commodity price volatility.

Keywords: Commodity price volatility; Resource-based growth; Early industrialization (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: N52 O13 Q32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:afc:cliome:v:9:y:2015:i:3:p:333-358

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