The USA-China Trade War: An Empirical Inquest into Winners and Losers

N. Chiranga, N. P. Sehlangu and Dr. C. Chukwu ()
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Dr. C. Chukwu: Tshwane University of Technology

Africagrowth Agenda, 2025, vol. 22, issue 3, 14-18

Abstract: The paper aims to determine, from an economic perspective, whether there are winners or losers in the trade war between China and the USA, which has intensified under President Trump’s second term in office. This study employs descriptive statistics, applying stylized economic facts to explore the economic consequences of this trade war. Further, the paper departs from relying on theoretical analysis to evidence-based analysis using stylized economic facts. Mostly, some studies focused on the 1st term of office of President Trump in 2018, but few have focused on the second term, a research gap this paper aims to fill. The study finds that the ongoing trade war between the USA and China has disrupted traditional supply chains, thus creating both challenges and opportunities for emerging markets. However, African economies have remained peripheral, lacking the necessary mechanisms to take advantage of these disruptions. The paper recommends that the US rethink its current approach to trade, especially its current trajectory of unilateral tariff escalation. Rather, it should consider more positive bilateral and multilateral trade agreements that highlight mutual benefits, innovation, and long-term partnerships.

Date: 2025
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