THE IMPACT OF THE PACIFYING POLICE UNITS (UPP) PROGRAM ON VIOLENT CRIME IN RIO DE JANEIRO: AN ANALYSIS USING THE SYNTHETIC CONTROL METHOD

Alexsandro Roberto Nascimento Ordonez (), Giovana Cavaggioni Bigliazzi () and Victor Hugo Barboza Pacheco ()
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Alexsandro Roberto Nascimento Ordonez: Universidade Federal do ABC (UFABC)
Giovana Cavaggioni Bigliazzi: Universidade Federal do ABC (UFABC)
Victor Hugo Barboza Pacheco: Universidade Federal do ABC (UFABC)

Revista de Economia Mackenzie (REM), 2020, vol. 17, issue 2, 114-141

Abstract: This paper identifies the impact of the Pacifying Police Units (UPP) program on violent crimes in the city of Rio de Janeiro (homicides per 100,000 inhabitants) between 2008 and 2013. We compared crime in the city of Rio de Janeiro with crime in a synthetic counterfactual with similar characteristics. Thus, we verified the trend of violent homicides in the regions and, consequently, we evaluated the policy established in Rio de Janeiro. We use data from public sources such as DataSUS, IBGE, CAGED and IPEA. The main results show that the synthetic counterfactual for the city of Rio de Janeiro presented a difference in crime trajectory compared to the actual city. After treatment, we can observe a decline in the homicide rate compared to the synthetic control, with approximately 195 lives saved in the period. The robustness of results were assessed using the Leave-One-Out test.

Keywords: Economics of crime; Rio de Janeiro; synthetic control; UPP; violent crime. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H56 K14 K42 Z18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aft:journl:v:17:2:2020:jul:dec:p:114-141

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