IS CURVE, PHILLIPS CURVE AND TAYLOR'S RULE: AN INTEGRATED ANALYSIS OF THE BRAZILIAN ECONOMY

Leonardo Köppe Malanski (), Wilhelm Eduard Milward de Azevedo Meiners () and Hudson Prestes dos Santos ()
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Leonardo Köppe Malanski: Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Paraná (PUCPR)
Wilhelm Eduard Milward de Azevedo Meiners: Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Paraná (PUCPR)
Hudson Prestes dos Santos: Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Paraná (PUCPR)

Revista de Economia Mackenzie (REM), 2020, vol. 17, issue 2, 142-168

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to understand the use of macroeconomic consistency models through the variables: inflation, exchange rate, unemployment, output gap and interest rate. Through secondary data, the behavior of the variables between 1999 and 2015 was analyzed. Using the constructed time series and the Ordinary Least Squares method, some functions were estimated by the macroeconomic consistency model. The results showed that the interest rate is a variable of great influence on the behavior of the Brazilian economy. A negative relationship was found between the output gap and the interest rate. It has also been shown that the interest rate can reduce inflation towards the previously established target. Still, it was possible to evidence the existence of inertial inflation as being characteristic of the inflationary pressures that the country witnessed during the period under analysis.

Keywords: output gap; interest rate; inertial inflation; inflation targeting; macroeconomic consistency. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E00 E50 E60 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aft:journl:v:17:2:2020:jul:dec:p:142-168

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