2011-2018: MEASURING THE CREDIBILITY OF THE BRAZILIAN MONETARY POLICY

Lázaro Cezar Dias (), Carolina Coelho Ferreira () and Vinícius Fernandes de Assis ()
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Lázaro Cezar Dias: Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM)
Carolina Coelho Ferreira: Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo (Ufes)
Vinícius Fernandes de Assis: Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora (UFJF)

Revista de Economia Mackenzie (REM), 2020, vol. 17, issue 2, 94-113

Abstract: The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the variations in the credibility of the Brazilian monetary policy between the years of 2011 and 2018, highlighting the shifts in the presidency of the Central Bank of Brazil. This main purpose can be divided into other two: i) measuring the credibility of the Brazilian monetary policy between the years of 2011 and 2018; ii) analyzing whether the theory proposed by Rogoff (1985) could be applied to the Brazil during this period. Rogoff’s theory states that appointing a “conservative†to head the Central Bank tends to increase the monetary policy credibility. The results shows a great deal of variability of the credibility index, along with more stability during Goldfajn’s term in opposite to Tombini’s. The article concludes that Rogoff’s hypothesis should only be considered as true after analyzing the whole picture, since conjunctural factors would greatly interfere in the index variations.

Keywords: Monetary policy credibility; inflation targeting regime; Central Bank of Brazil; Selic; IPCA. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E13 E3 E42 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aft:journl:v:17:2:2020:jul:dec:p:94-113

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