INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL OBSTACLES TO THE GROWTH AND PERFORMANCE OF THE BRAZILIAN INDUSTRY - AN ANALYSIS BASED ON ARDL COINTEGRATION MODELS FROM 2006 TO 2018

Rafael Moraes de Sousa () and Karina Palmieri de Almeida ()
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Rafael Moraes de Sousa: Universidade Federal de Uberlândia (UFU)
Karina Palmieri de Almeida: Universidade Federal de Uberlândia (UFU)

Revista de Economia Mackenzie (REM), 2021, vol. 18, issue 1, 115-142

Abstract: This paper performs an empirical analysis of some internal and external obstacles to the growth of the industry, as well as the determinants of performance (industrial exports), for the period from 2006 to 2018, highlighting a variable for the quality of exports. The methodology consists of Auto Regressive Models with Distributed Lags (ARDL) for cointegration. The results suggest that the variables identified as obstacles, in fact, have negative impacts on growth in the long term. For exports, the exchange rate and price developments were components with a negative impact, while the dynamics of world income is beneficial. Finally, the results for the variable quality of exports explain that production and export composition is not conducive to industrial growth.

Keywords: Industry; performance; growth; models; ARDL. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C01 L60 O14 O47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aft:journl:v:18:1:2021:jan:jun:p:115-142

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