PHILLIPS CURVE – A CHRONOLOGICAL ASSESSMENT OF BRAZILIAN STUDIES OVER THE PAST TEN YEARS

Urandi Roberto Paiva Freitas () and Pedro Pedral Sampaio ()
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Urandi Roberto Paiva Freitas: Universidade Salvador (Unifacs)
Pedro Pedral Sampaio: Faculdadede Informática e Administração Paulista (Fiap)

Revista de Economia Mackenzie (REM), 2021, vol. 18, issue 1, 168-191

Abstract: The Phillips Curve, defined as an inversely proportional relationship between wages and the unemployment rate, emerges in 1958 from a study proposed by New Zealand economist, eradicated in England, AW Phillips and since then it is one of the most important relationships analyzed by macroeconomics. This statement is corroborated by studies carried out by most central banks, especially those that adopted the inflation targeting regime, which seek to understand the inflationary dynamics of their nation. Given the above, this research aims to analyze the scientific production on the Phillips Curve in Brazil in the last ten years. To this end, a bibliographic review was used, using the descriptors “Phillips Curve in Brazil†and its respective English synonym, “Phillips Curve in Brazil†. The articles were searched in the database database of the Scientific Eletronic Library Online (SCIELO), and the collection was carried out between April and June 2020. Articles published between June 2010 and June 2020, in Portuguese, were defined as inclusion criteria and English, whose object of study revolves around the Brazilian inflationary dynamics and its respective Phillips Curve. Articles found in duplicate and / or outside the scope period were excluded from the analysis. Twenty-four articles published in Scielo with the descriptors “Phillips curve in Brazil†and their English synonym were found and after using the inclusion and exclusion criteria, eleven articles were selected for analysis. At the end of the evaluation of the articles, it is possible to conclude that there is still a disagreement in the national literature on the best econometric methodology to be applied to illustrate the inflationary dynamics from the Phillips Curve, as well as on the proxies to be used to represent, mainly, the marginal cost of companies. It is also possible to observe that all the research carried out used national data, something extremely common in the literature when it comes to the evaluation of the Phillips Curve. However, regarding the development of regional monetary and fiscal policies, whether expansionist or contractionary, it is necessary to develop models with local data, to represent the real inflationary dynamics of the region.

Keywords: Phillips curve; inflation rate; unemployment rate; monetary policy. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E3 E65 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aft:journl:v:18:1:2021:jan:jun:p:168-191

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