THE INTERACTION BETWEEN FOOD PRICES AND THE FUTURE EXPECTATION OF INFLATION: A DYNAMIC ANALYSIS

Sara Rosa dos Santos () and Aniela Fagundes Carrara ()
Additional contact information
Sara Rosa dos Santos: Universidade Federal de Rondonópolis (UFR)
Aniela Fagundes Carrara: Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso (UFMT)

Revista de Economia Mackenzie (REM), 2021, vol. 18, issue 2, 135-158

Abstract: The present study aimed to analyze the relationship between food prices and expectations about the IPCA itself, to understand whether such prices can generate some relevant and lasting impact, in addition to seasonal ones arising from its agricultural nature, in the expectation of inflation. To fulfill the proposed objective, a model based on the Phillips curve was structured, whose estimation was performed using Autoregressive Vectors with Error Correction in its structural version (SVEC). The results obtained show that there is a considerable relationship between food prices and the expectation of inflation, and such influence is shown to be lasting, therefore, the variability of such prices, however transient they may end up generating a reflection of greater durability. in what is expected from inflation and so, such effects can be transmitted indirectly to the economy, since expectations are an important item within the Brazilian macroeconomic scenario.

Keywords: Prices; Expectations; Food. Transmission; IPCA. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E31 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://editorarevistas.mackenzie.br/index.php/rem/article/view/14352 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aft:journl:v:18:2:2021:jul:dec:p:135-158

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Revista de Economia Mackenzie (REM) from Mackenzie Presbyterian University, Social and Applied Sciences Center Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Instituto Presbiteriano Mackenzie (IPM) ().