HYSTERESIS OF UNEMPLOYMENT IN BRAZIL: STRUCTURAL BREAKS AND PERSISTENCE IN THE YEARS FROM 2012 TO 2020

Fabiano Roberto Santos de Lima ()
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Fabiano Roberto Santos de Lima: Universidade Estácio de Sá (Unesa)

Revista de Economia Mackenzie (REM), 2021, vol. 18, issue spe, 89-106

Abstract: This article aims to verify if there is evidence of hysteresis in the Brazilian labor market in the period from 2012 to 2020 with monthly data for unemployment. The econometric approach used is the conventional unit root tests, the Bai and Perron test (2003) to identify multiple structural breaks and, in addition, the degree of unemployment persistence is verified with the application of the Campbell and Mankiw model (1987). The results indicate the existence of weak hysteresis in the labor market. There are indications that the trajectory of unemployment in Brazil suffered two structural breaks that altered its trajectory, one in December 2014 and the other in March 2016.

Keywords: Hysteresis; persistence of unemployment; structural break; stationarity; job market. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C1 J64 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aft:journl:v:18:spe:2021:specialissue:p:89-106

DOI: 10.5935/1808-2785/rem.v18nespp.89-106

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