Economics at your fingertips  

The effects of Turkish-Russian political relations on bilateral trade balance: Cointegration and causal analysis

Abidin Öncel and Liudmila Liapina
Additional contact information
Abidin Öncel: Sakarya University, Turkey
Liudmila Liapina: Sakarya University, Turkey

Theoretical and Applied Economics, 2018, vol. XXV, issue 1(614), Spring, 73-94

Abstract: The development of political relations between countries usually causes some changes in the volume of countries’ foreign trade with each other as well. In this context, every worsening of political relations between the countries is supposed to reduce the foreign trade volume, as well as the betterment of political relations is expected to increase it. Therefore, countries willing to benefit from foreign trade have to maintain good political relations with the other countries. In this paper we examine long run determinants of the trade balance between Turkey and Russia, giving particular thought to the influence of the political relations between two countries on their foreign trade. The model is conducted by using quarterly data over the period from 1996 to 2016. The paper confirms the existence of long run negative relationships between reel effective exchange rates, foreign policy crises and trade balance. However, the influence of foreign policy successes turned out to not have any significant effects on the trade balance.

Keywords: trade-politics relationship; trade balance; Turkey-Russia political relations; cointegration analyse. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link) (application/pdf) (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

Access Statistics for this article

Theoretical and Applied Economics is currently edited by Marin Dinu

More articles in Theoretical and Applied Economics from Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Marin Dinu ().

Page updated 2018-03-31
Handle: RePEc:agr:journl:v:1(614):y:2018:i:1(614):p:73-94