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REMARKS ON POTENTIAL GDP ESTIMATION IN ROMANIA

Ana-Michaela Andrei, Gheorghe Oprescu, Mihai Roman () and Ramona-Mihaela Păun
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Ana-Michaela Andrei: Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies
Gheorghe Oprescu: Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies
Ramona-Mihaela Păun: Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies

Theoretical and Applied Economics, 2009, vol. 12(541)(supplement), issue 12(541)(supplement), 245-252

Abstract: This paper is focused on potential GDP and output gap estimation in Romania using a univariate method – HP filter and a multivariate method – production function method that are applied on annual time series covering years 1990-2008. The production function we use is Cobb-Douglas with potential labor computed with the method proposed by Elmeskov (1993). The results indicate for potential output variations between 0.36% and 2% between 1994-2000 and 5%-6.7% between 2004-2008. For output gap, the results point to stronger gaps at the beginning of 1990s’ that decrease within range of -2.3% and +2.7% between 1999-2000.

Keywords: potential GDP; output gap; HP filter; production function method; NAWRU. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
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