The relationship between external factors and economic growth: Differences between the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic from a Granger causality perspective

Alexandra Cheptis, Cristina Bejenaru, Miruna-Mihaela Vasilca and Alin-Ioan Vid

Theoretical and Applied Economics, 2025, vol. XXXII, issue 1(642), Spring, 125-134

Abstract: The paper investigates the causal relationship between external factors and economic growth in three countries from Central and Eastern Europe and contains a series of complex analyses on the study of typologies of economic crises. The study includes Markov-Switching Autoregressive (MS-AR) models for characterizing business cycles, and the Granger causality technique is used to analyze the relationship between external shocks and economic growth, separately during financial and pandemic crises. The results indicated that, in the case of Romania, the global financial crisis has a longer period of negative growth rates, but a faster recovery from health crisis. It is also noted that the Czech Republic and Hungary have a more stable economic evolution over time. In addition, the causality test indicates unidirectional causality between external factors and the GDP growth rate during financial and pandemic crises.

Keywords: external shocks; economic growth; COVID-19 pandemic; financial crisis; Granger causality. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://store.ectap.ro/articole/1813.pdf (application/pdf)
http://www.ectap.ro/articol.php?id=1813&rid=158 (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:agr:journl:v:xxxii:y:2025:i:1(642):p:125-134

Access Statistics for this article

Theoretical and Applied Economics is currently edited by Mircea Dinu

More articles in Theoretical and Applied Economics from Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Mircea Dinu ().