Why projections on China's future food supply and demand differ

Shenggen Fan and Mercedita C. Agcaoili-Sombilla

Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 1997, vol. 41, issue 2, 22

Abstract: This article analyses the macroeconomic assumptions, demand and supply parameters, and structures of the models used in projecting China's future food supply, demand and trade. Projections vary greatly, from China being self- sufficient in grain to being a net importer of 369 million metric tons of grain in 2030. The differences stem mainly from the approaches chosen to model China's grain production and, in particular, the combined effects of land decline and yield growth. The article also points out improvements needed in future work on modelling China's grain economy, which include accounting for the links between agriculture and other sectors, technical change in the livestock industry and infra- structure constraints on grain imports.

Keywords: Food; Security; and; Poverty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1997
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (16)

Downloads: (external link)
https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/118013/files/1467-8489.00009.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Why do projections on China's future food supply and demand differ? (1997)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:aareaj:118013

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.118013

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics from Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by AgEcon Search ().