Comparing traditional and machine learning techniques in apartments mass appraisal in Fortaleza, Brazil

Antônio Augusto Ferreira de Oliveira, Fabián Reyes-Bueno, Marco Aurelio Stumpf González and Everton da Silva

Aestimum, 2025, vol. 85

Abstract: Mass appraisal has significant applications, such as urban planning, real estate appraisal, and property tax. Due to the challenges of analyzing massive models, they are often developed using semi-automatic assessment methods and machine learning techniques. This article explores different appraisal model methods that utilize statistics and machine learning. It also looks at incorporating spatial information to see if the chosen method can effectively capture the typical spatial dependency of the real estate market. This can help reduce the spatial autocorrelation observed in the residuals. The study compared nine machine learning methods with traditional statistical approaches using a dataset of over 43,000 apartments in Fortaleza, Brazil. The results of the machine learning algorithms were similar. The XGBoost minimized spatial autocorrelation. The easiest interpretations were with MRA, M5P, and MARS techniques. Although, these techniques had the greatest residual spatial autocorrelations. There is a trade-off between the methods, depending on whether the aim is to improve accuracy or provide a clear explanation for property taxation.

Keywords: Demand; and; Price; Analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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