Performance and Determinants of Exports of Coffee from India: A Post-WTO Scenario

Arghyadeep Das, R. Raju, T.M. Kiran Kumara and Siddayya

Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2020, vol. Volume 75, issue Number 4

Abstract: Coffee is an important plantation crop and has high export potential. About 70 per cent of total coffee produced in India is exported. India ranks fifth in total coffee exports in the world. The share of coffee export in total agricultural exports, depict a decreasing trend in recent years. To analyse the performance of coffee in post-WTO era, the time series data was divided into three periods, i.e., Period I (1995-96 to 1999-00), Period II (2000-01 to 2008-09) and Period III (2009-10 to 2018-19). Except in Period II, the quantity of export was showed positive and significant growth rate, instability of value of export and unit value of export was higher in Period II as compared to period I and III. Russian Federation, Italy, Germany, Spain, Belgium, Poland are the major export destinations of Indian coffee. Transition Probability Matrix was estimated to examine the retention probability of export share of Indian coffee among the major importers for the aforementioned periods. Markov chain process was used to forecast the share of export of Indian coffee among major importers for 2019-20 to 2024-25. The international price of coffee, exchange rate between rupees and dollars and lagged production of coffee were the few determinants of export of coffee.

Keywords: Crop Production/Industries; International Relations/Trade (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:inijae:345140

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.345140

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