WASDE Surprises and Futures Prices: What Moves Markets?

Indira Aitkulova, Emily Balsamo and Fred Seamon

Journal of the ASFMRA, 2026, vol. 2026

Abstract: We examine corn and soybean futures price movements in the periods surrounding the release of the monthly World Agricultural Supply Demand Estimates (WASDE) by the United States Department of Agriculture. Using polling estimations to calculate a degree of “surprise” for each WASDE release, we found statistically significant relationships between U.S. corn and soybean ending stock data and relevant corn and soybean futures intraday price movements post-release, with the nature of correlations changing as time from the release passed. Additionally, directionally correct drift prior to release suggests that we also observed informed trading and/or superior internal research.

Keywords: Marketing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:jasfmr:410270

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.410270

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