Practical Alternatives for Forecasting Corn and Soybean Basis in the Eastern Corn Belt throughout the Crop-Marketing Year
Nathanael M. Thompson,
Aaron J. Edwards,
James Mintert () and
Christopher A. Hurt
Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 2019, vol. 44, issue 3
This paper re-evaluates practical methods of forecasting corn and soybean basis in the eastern Corn Belt. The accuracy of forecast methods differs over the course of the crop-marketing year. At harvest, historical moving average forecasts perform best. Post-harvest forecasts may be improved at short forecast horizons (<8'12 weeks ahead) by combining historical moving averages and recent basis levels. Results suggest that using 3-to-5-year moving average forecasts for corn basis and a 2- or 5-year moving average for soybean basis from harvest through April. The accuracy of these corn and soybean basis forecasts decreases markedly during the summer months.
Keywords: Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/292332/files/J ... -590w_Supplement.pdf (application/pdf)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:jlaare:292332
Access Statistics for this article
More articles in Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics from Western Agricultural Economics Association Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by AgEcon Search ().