Practical Alternatives for Forecasting Corn and Soybean Basis in the Eastern Corn Belt throughout the Crop-Marketing Year

Nathanael M. Thompson, Aaron J. Edwards, James Mintert and Christopher A. Hurt

Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 2019, vol. 44, issue 3

Abstract: This paper re-evaluates practical methods of forecasting corn and soybean basis in the eastern Corn Belt. The accuracy of forecast methods differs over the course of the crop-marketing year. At harvest, historical moving average forecasts perform best. Post-harvest forecasts may be improved at short forecast horizons (<8'12 weeks ahead) by combining historical moving averages and recent basis levels. Results suggest that using 3-to-5-year moving average forecasts for corn basis and a 2- or 5-year moving average for soybean basis from harvest through April. The accuracy of these corn and soybean basis forecasts decreases markedly during the summer months.

Keywords: Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:jlaare:292332

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.292332

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