Analysis of HPAI Incidence Factors in Duck Farms Using a Negative Binomial Regression Model

Meilan An

Journal of Rural Development/Nongchon-Gyeongje, 2020, vol. 43, issue 4

Abstract: Duck farms are getting attention as the primary propagation medium of HPAI. Therefore, this study analyzes the effect of duck farms’ characteristics on the occurrence of HPAI. We classified duck farms’ characteristics into farm management method, facility status, and location type, and selected 25 variables related to them. We used survey data from 715 duck farms for our research. We conducted an overdispersion test to choose a proper model. The test result showed that a negative binomial regression model was more appropriate than a Poisson regression model. The simulation of the negative binomial regression model showed that the incidence of HPAI was higher in farms with a high gross margin, large breeding scale, and increasedmortality. In farms where shipment and manure vehiclesentered their premises, the occurrence of HPAI increased. In addition, the occurrence of HPAI rose in areas where many farms were clustered and in farms where roads and feed manufactures were closer.

Keywords: Livestock; Production/Industries (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:jordng:330790

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.330790

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