An Unobserved Components Forecasting Model of Non-Farm Employment for the Nashville MSA

Joachim Zietz and David Penn (dpenn@mtsu.edu)

Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, 2008, vol. 38, issue 01, 10

Abstract: The study demonstrates how unobserved component modeling, also known as structural time series modeling, can be usefully applied to forecast non-farm employment for the Nash-ville MSA. Short-term out-of-sample forecasts are provided for total employment and its three components: services, construction, and manufacturing. The forecasts are compared to those of a simple vector autoregression. It is shown that the suggested methodology provides very ac-curate short-term forecasts even in the absence of a full set of independent regressors. In addition, it makes it possible to back out long-term trends, which aid the forecaster in making long-term projections of sectoral employment.

Keywords: Labor and Human Capital; Research Methods/Statistical Methods (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/132344/files/08-1-6.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:jrapmc:132344

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.132344

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy from Mid-Continent Regional Science Association Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by AgEcon Search (aesearch@umn.edu).