Effects of Climate and Other Selected Variables on Rice Output Response in Nigeria

O. Abu, A.E. Okpe and D.A. Abah

Nigerian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2018, vol. 08, issue 01

Abstract: Over the years, rising temperature and unpredictable rainfall have been found to create significant consequences in crop and livestock production as well as threatened food security. This study examined the effects of climate change on rice output response in Nigeria from 1966 to 2015 using an error correction model. The results showed that temperature and rainfall adversely affected rice output in Nigeria during the period studied. Furthermore, results showed that rice output was affected by other variables included in the model both in the long and short-runs. The coefficient of real producer price of rice lagged by one year was positive while the real producer price of maize lagged by one year was negative and statistically significant showing that when the price of maize increases over a period of time, a farmer will shift from rice production to maize production and vice versa. The coefficient of the error correction term (ECT_1) was negative and significant at 10% significance level, indicating that rice output adjusted to the equilibrium given any changes in own price, price of substitute and climatic variables. Consequently, for this model in the short-run, rice output was adjusted by 3% of the past year’s deviation from equilibrium. The variance decomposition result showed that rainfall had the most drastic effect on rice output. Consequently, in order for Nigeria to mitigate the negative consequence of climate change on rice output, there is a need for the promotion of irrigation systems.

Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:naaenj:280315

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.280315

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