Soybean Basis Hits Record Low Amid Zero New-Crop Sales to China

Shawn Arita, Jiyeon Kim, Wuit Yi Lwin, Sandro Steinbach and Xiting Zhuang

NDSU Agricultural Trade Monitor, 33

Abstract: The September 2025 NDSU Agricultural Trade Monitor highlights unprecedented disruptions in U.S.–China agricultural trade. By the end of August, new-crop soybean sales to China stood at zero, marking the first time in modern trade records that no purchases were on the books this late in the season. Lost Chinese demand has not been replaced by other foreign buyers or domestic use, leaving total outstanding soybean sales at just 8.05 MMT; less than half of 2023 and a third of 2022 volumes. Brazil has captured China’s peak-season demand, pushing U.S. shipments out of their traditional window. The lack of export pull has driven North Dakota soybean basis to a record low of –$1.50/bushel and cash prices below $8.50, far under production costs. States dependent on Pacific Northwest rail channels have experienced the sharpest basis declines, while railroads have shifted rates to favor Gulf movements, accelerating a structural pivot in grain flows. The weakness extends beyond soybeans: China’s outstanding purchases are effectively zero for corn, wheat, and sorghum, with only minimal pork and cotton activity. USDA now forecasts U.S. agricultural exports to China at $9 billion in 2025/26; lower than during the 2018/19 trade war and down 75% from the $36 billion peak in 2021/22. Year-to-date, U.S. exports to China have fallen 53%, with soybean, beef, and sorghum shipments at multi-year lows despite firmer corn and ethanol exports. The outlook underscores how absent Chinese demand is reshaping U.S. export flows, widening Northern Plains basis, and eroding farm-gate returns.

Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade; Risk and Uncertainty; Supply Chain (search for similar items in EconPapers)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:ndsutm:369070

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.369070

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