China Could Bypass U.S. Soybeans in 2025/26 and IEEPA Tariffs Raise Input Costs

Shawn Arita, Jiyeon Kim, Wuit Yi Lwin, Sandro Steinbach, Ming Wang and Xiting Zhuang

NDSU Agricultural Trade Monitor, 27

Abstract: The October 2025 NDSU Agricultural Trade Monitor finds that China could bypass U.S. soybeans during the 2025/26 marketing year if it accepts higher costs and modest ration adjustments. Based on trade-war analogs and updated projections, Brazil and other suppliers could provide about 107 million metric tons of soybeans, covering 96% of China’s 112 million metric ton import demand, while China’s domestic stocks of roughly 27 million metric tons could close the remaining gap. Current Brazilian premiums average around $40 per ton above U.S. offers, compared with more than $90 during the 2018–2019 trade conflict, indicating that substitution remains economically feasible. The report also finds that IEEPA tariffs imposed in April 2025 are reshaping U.S. agricultural input imports and raising fertilizer costs. Nitrogen imports from tariffed countries declined 23%, or 580,000 tons, and phosphate imports fell 47%, while imports from exempt or USMCA suppliers increased 44%. By late summer, U.S. farmers were paying about $34 per ton more for DAP, $32 more for MAP, and $11 more for urea than Canadian producers. Together, these shifts show how weakened Chinese demand and higher input costs are reshaping U.S. agricultural trade flows, farm margins, and competitiveness in 2025/26.

Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade; Risk and Uncertainty; Supply Chain (search for similar items in EconPapers)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:ndsutm:373344

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.373344

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