A NOTE ON FORECASTING WITH ECONOMETRIC MODELS

P Allen

Northeastern Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 1984, vol. 13, issue 2, 4

Abstract: Forecasts made by econometricians are typically conditioned on actual values of explanatory variables, even when at the time of the forecast, such variables might not be available. As a first step, one might test the adequacy of econometric specification by comparing conditional post sample forecasts with those of a univariate ARIMA model. Second, when explanatory variables must themselves be forecast, those for which this can be done only badly, should be omitted from the final model. A better forecast will result. An example of screening out badly forecasted explanatory variables is presented.

Keywords: Resource/Energy; Economics; and; Policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1984
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/28916/files/13020264.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:nejare:28916

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.28916

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Northeastern Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics from Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by AgEcon Search ().