Model monetarny kursu równowagi złoty/euro: analiza kointegracyjna

Piotr Wdowiński

Gospodarka Narodowa-The Polish Journal of Economics, 2011, vol. 2011, issue 3

Abstract: The author carries out a cointegration analysis for the nominal exchange rate of the zloty against the euro according to a monetary theory developed by U.S. economist Jeffrey A. Frankel (1979). Wdowiński estimates a cointegration vector for the period 1999M7-2008M9. Long-term estimates show that the euro exchange rate depends on changes in industrial production and on short- and long-term interest rates, the author says. The influence of M1 money supply proves to be statistically insignificant. The departure of the euro rate from a state of monetary equilibrium was corrected slowly, the author says, because the half-life of the divergence was almost two years. The solution of the model showed that the euro exchange rate diverged significantly from a state of equilibrium determined by fundamental factors in the 1999M7-2004M1 period, while showing smaller deviations in the 2004M2-2008M9 period. Overall, the author observed periods when the zloty was both overvalued and undervalued against the euro due to a long-term equilibrium rate. The deviations stabilized noticeably from May 2003. In the 2003M5-2006M3 period, the zloty was overvalued by 9.6% on average, while in the 2006M4-2008M9 period it was undervalued by 9.3%. In the short term, the zloty tended to appreciate as a result of increases in short-term interest rates. According to the author, fundamental economic factors in Poland and the euro area point to the existence of a trend whereby the zloty is gaining ground against the euro, while short-term changes in this rate may be significant due to a growing macroeconomic risk.

Keywords: Financial; Economics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/358256/files/Wdowi%C5%84ski.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:polgne:358256

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.358256

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Gospodarka Narodowa-The Polish Journal of Economics from Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie / SGH Warsaw School of Economics Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by AgEcon Search ().