Os impactos regionais das mudanças climáticas sobre a produtividade agrícola familiar e patronal no Brasil

Tarik Marques do Prado Tanure, Edson Domingues and Aline Souza Magalhães

Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural (RESR), 2024, vol. 62, issue 01

Abstract: This paper projects and analyzes the regional impacts of climate change on the agricultural productivity of family farming and large-scale agriculture in Brazil between 2021 and 2050, using the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The methodology adopted consists of a cross-sectional estimation of a production function in which agricultural productivity is determined by climatic, geographic, and productive factors. The study contributes to the literature by disaggregating agricultural production into family farming and large-scale agriculture, indicating the magnitude and direction of impacts by crops and regions in Brazil, a country with a great territorial dimension and relevant and heterogeneous agricultural production. The results indicate that the agricultural productivity of family farming is more sensitive and therefore this type of producer could be more vulnerable to the phenomenon. On average, the effects will be negative in the North/ Northeast regions and for cassava, maize, beans, and soybeans, with possible impacts on deforestation and on food supply. Productivity gains are expected in the southern region and for the cultivation of sugar cane and soybeans. Deterioration of food security of the vulnerable farmers and regional disparities may increase in Brazil.

Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management; Food Security and Poverty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:revi24:340820

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.340820

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