Previsões para o Mercado de Carnes

Geraldo da Silva e Souza, Mirian Oliveira de Souza, Daniela Vieira Marques, Rosaura Gazzola and Renner Marra

Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural (RESR), 2011, vol. 49, issue 2

Abstract: This work aimed to present Brazilian forecasts of production, consumption, exports and export average price of meat (beef, pork and poultry). Forecasts were generated using the Markovian representation (state space) model and an autoregressive integrated moving average (Arima). Annual growth rates were also calculated. Series observed involve the period from 1972 to 2009 and the analysis of the forecasts involves the period from 2010 to 2020. The forecasts of the products are well adjusted to the observations. According to the results, Brazil showed a growth trend in all the analyzed variables. It is concluded that the Brazilian meat market indicates good perspectives of strengthening in world terms, especially for poultry.

Keywords: International Relations/Trade; Livestock Production/Industries; Production Economics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:revi24:341610

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.341610

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