Agro-Industrial Complex and economic security of Ukraine: Strategic European integration vector

Ihor Domanetskyi, Olga Maslak, Yaroslava Yakovenko, Mariya Maslak and Natalya Hryshko

Ekonomika, Journal for Economic Theory and Practice and Social Issues, 2025, vol. 32, issue 6

Abstract: The Agro-Industrial Complex of Ukraine was a critical determinant of National Economic Security, a relationship profoundly tested, particulary during the full-scale russian invasion initiated in 2022. The purpose of the study was to quantify the impact of the Agro-Industrial Complex and other key economic sectors on Ukraine’s National Economic Security over the 2013-2022 period and drawn strategic lessons from the evolution of the European Union’s Common Agricultural Policy. The results from Partial Least Squares Path Modeling showed the model explained 86.6% of the variance in economic security. The Agro-Industrial Complex emerged as the most significant positive driver, with a standardised path coefficient of 0.394. The industrial and financial sectors also contributed positively but to a lesser extent. The energy sector exerted a strong negative influence, acting as a primary channel for economic shocks, while investment demonstrated a negligible impact, indicating systemic barriers to capital deployment. Descriptive data revealed that despite a drop in average grain production from 75.5 million tonnes (2019-2021) to approximately 54 million tonnes in 2022, the Agro-Industrial Complex’s shared of total exports surged from an average of 40.23% to 53.0% in 2022 and 60.8% in 2023, highlighting its role as a macroeconomic stabiliser. State intervention to modernise the energy grid and dismantle barriers to capital was the most supported path to converting the Agro-Industrial Complex’s remarkable resilience into a lasting foundation for a secure and prosperous post-war economy. The findings provided an empirical foundation for Ukrainian policymakers to prioritise systemic reforms in the energy and investment sectors alongside agricultural development to build resilient National Economic Security

Keywords: Agricultural; and; Food; Policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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