An Armington Model of U.S. Cotton Exports

Ronald A. Babula

Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, 1987, vol. 39, issue 4, 11

Abstract: A muiltiregional Armington model of U S cotton exports is estimated inappropriately with ordinary least squares (OLS) and appropnately wlth seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) Trade elasticity estimates and out-of-sample forecast performance demonstrate the importance of using the correct econometric technique The choice of estimator clearly Influences the model's forecast accuracy out of sample, levels of trade parameter estimates, and degrees of coefficient estimate efficiency Four shortcoimngs of the agricultural trade literature are addressed (1) frequent neglect of trade theory, (2) excessively wide ranges of trade parameter estimates, (3) frequent misuse of OLS, and (4) failure to validate models out of sample

Keywords: Crop Production/Industries; Production Economics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1987
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/136971/files/Babula_39_4.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:uersja:136971

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.136971

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Journal of Agricultural Economics Research from United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by AgEcon Search ().