Identifying the nature of the seasonal component. Application for Romania's quarterly exports between 1990-2006

Mariana Gagea ()
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Mariana Gagea: The Department of Economics, Quantitative Analysis and Business Information Systems, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University

Analele Stiintifice ale Universitatii "Alexandru Ioan Cuza" din Iasi - Stiinte Economice (1954-2015), 2007, vol. 54, 154-159

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to study the identification methods of the nature of the seasonal component of a time series. These methods are represented by the verifying tests of the unit root for the models of seasonal autoregressive processes: the HEGY test, the Franses test, etc. In practice, it has been demonstrated that the seasonal component is both deterministic and stochastic. The HEGY test allows identifying the nature of seasonal variations, but it is difficult to establish a limit between the two parts. The correct arbitration of the test' results of seasonal autoregressive processes, with and without a deterministic component, makes it possible to choose the appropriate methods of seasonal variations elimination. This aspect is highlighted by analysing the time series defined by Romania's quarterly exports between 1990 - 2006.

Keywords: seasonal variations; deterministic seasonality; stochastic seasonality; unit root test; HEGY test. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aic:journl:y:2007:v:14:p:154-159

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