EXPLOITING THE INFORMATION OF STOCK MARKET TO FORECAST EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENTS

Manish Kumar ()
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Manish Kumar: PhD student, "Indian Institute of Technology Madras”, India

Analele Stiintifice ale Universitatii "Alexandru Ioan Cuza" din Iasi - Stiinte Economice (1954-2015), 2009, vol. 56, 563-575

Abstract: The present study examines dynamic relation between stock index and exchange rate by using the daily data for India. The empirical evidence suggests that there is no long-run relationship; how-ever, there is bidirectional causality between stock index and exchange rates. The findings of the causality tests strongly support portfolio or macroeconomic approach on the relationship between ex-change rates and stock prices. An attempt is also made to forecast daily returns of INR/USD exchange rates by exploiting the information of causal relationship between exchange rates and stock index us-ing Vector autoregression (VAR) model. VAR’s out-of-sample performance is benchmarked against the traditional ARIMA model. The potential of the two models are rigorously evaluated by employing a cross-validation scheme and statistical metrics like mean absolute error, root mean square error and directional accuracy. Out-of-sample performance shows that VAR model is robust, and consis-tently produces superior predictions than ARIMA model.

Keywords: Stock Prices; Exchange Rates; Bivariate Causality; Forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
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