IMPROVING THE INFLATION RATE FORECASTS OF ROMANIAN EXPERTS USING A FIXED-EFFECTS MODELS APPROACH

Mihaela Simionescu

Review of Economic and Business Studies, 2014, issue 13, 87-102

Abstract: This article proposes an empirical econometric approach to improve the degree of accuracy for predictions made by Romanian experts in forecasting. Several fixed-effects models are constructed using the inflation and unemployment rate actual values and the forecasts provided by the European Commission, the National Commission for Prognosis and Dobrescu’s model over 2001-2014. The predictions based on these fixed-effects models did not improve the forecasters’ accuracy, but combined predictions of these models and naive forecasts brought a statistically significant improvement for projections made by Romanian forecasters on the horizon 2011-2013. This assumption was proved by common accuracy measures and Diebold-Mariano test.

Keywords: accuracy; forecasts; fixed-effects model; random walk; forecast error (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C51 C53 E21 E27 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aic:revebs:y:2014:i:13:simionescum

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