Financial Contagion from the Subprime Crisis: A Copula Approach

Rita I.L. Mendes, Luís Gomes and Patrícia Ramos
Additional contact information
Rita I.L. Mendes: ISCAP / P.PORTO
Luís Gomes: CEOS.PP / ISCAP / P.PORTO
Patrícia Ramos: ISCAP / P.PORTO and INESC TEC

Scientific Annals of Economics and Business (continues Analele Stiintifice), 2022, vol. 69, issue 4, 501 - 520

Abstract: The magnitude of the subprime crisis effects caused recessions in several economies, giving rise to the global financial crisis. The scale of this major shock and the different recovery profiles of European economies motivated this paper. The main objective is to look for evidence of contagion between the North American financial market (S&P500) and the financial markets of Portugal (PSI20), Spain (IBEX35), Greece (ATHEX) and Italy (FTSEMIB), in the South of Europe, and the financial markets of Sweden (OMXS30), Denmark (OMX2C0), Finland (OMXH25) and Norway (OsloOBX), in the North of Europe. Considering the period from January 1, 2003 to December 31, 2013, the ARMA-GARCH models were estimated to remove the autoregressive and conditional heteroscedastic effects from the time series of the daily returns. Then, the copula models were used to estimate the dependence relationships between the European stock indexes and the North American stock index, from the pre-crisis subperiod to the crisis subperiod. The results indicate financial contagion of the subprime crisis for all analyzed European countries. The North European markets intensified the relations of financial integration (both in negative and positive shocks) with the North American market, apart from the Danish against the Portuguese. In addition to the contribution made by the joint application of the ARMA-GARCH models, the findings are useful to identify channels of financial contagion between markets and to warn about the effects of possible new crisis, which will require different levels of adaptation by the companies’ financial managers and intervention by the authorities.

Keywords: financial contagion, financial markets, subprime crisis,; Copulas, ARMA-GARCH. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://saeb.feaa.uaic.ro/index.php/saeb/article/view/1726 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aic:saebjn:v:69:y:2022:i:4:p:501-520:n:8

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Scientific Annals of Economics and Business (continues Analele Stiintifice) from Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sireteanu Napoleon-Alexandru ().