Linear and Nonlinear Relationship Between Real Exchange Rate, Real Interest Rate and Consumer Price Index: An Empirical Application for Countries with Different Levels of Development

Ersin Sünbül
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Ersin Sünbül: Independent Researcher, Ankara, Turkey

Scientific Annals of Economics and Business (continues Analele Stiintifice), 2023, vol. 70, issue 1, 57 - 70

Abstract: The research population of this study consists of Australia, Azerbaijan, Egypt, Brazil, Chile, Canada, Hungary, Pakistan, India, Ukraine and the United Kingdom. For these countries; T, the relationship between Exchange Rate Index (exc), Real Interest Rate (int) and Consumer Price Index (cpi) variables were examined. Data from 2000Q1 to 2021Q3 were used in the study. The data are taken from the IMF's data bank. Analysis was done in R-Studio. Wo Seasonality Test, Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test, Linear Granger Causality Analysis and Nonlinear Granger Causality Analysis were used to investigate the relationship between variables. The theory claims that there is causality in both directions between exchange rate, interest rate and inflation. In the study, the relationship between these variables was investigated with linear and nonlinear causality tests. It is thought that the empirical results that contradict the theory are caused by the development levels of the countries, their macroeconomic structures, the applied fiscal and monetary policy instruments, the conjuncture and the analysis methods. The study aims to investigate these claims. For this reason, the development levels, sociocultural and socioeconomic structures of the selected countries were requested to be different. In addition, two different test methods, linear and non-linear, were preferred for the causality relationship. It was observed that the selected analysis methods significantly affected the results. Linear causality analysis results are closer to theoretical implications. However, the level of development of the countries does not have a significant effect on the relationship between the variables.

Keywords: linear and nonlinear Granger causality test; development levels of countries; time series analysis. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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