The Dynamics of Trade Relations between Ukraine and Romania: Modelling and Forecasting

Oleksandr Melnychenko (), Valerii Matskul () and Tetiana Osadcha ()
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Oleksandr Melnychenko: Gdansk University of Technology, Gdansk, Poland
Valerii Matskul: Odesa National Economic University, Odesa, Ukraine
Tetiana Osadcha: Odesa Mechnikov National University, Odesa, Ukraine

Virtual Economics, 2022, vol. 5, issue 2, 7-23

Abstract: The article examines the monthly dynamics of exports, imports and balance of trade between Ukraine and Romania in the period from 2005 to 2021. Time series from 2015 to 2021 were used for modelling and forecasting (since the date the European Union–Ukraine Association Agreement took effect). Adequate models of the dynamics series of the Box-Jenkins methodology were built: additive models with seasonal component ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) ARIMAS (or SARIMA) and Holt-Winters exponential smoothing with a dampened trend. Forecasting of exports, imports and trade balance for the fourth quarter of 2021 and first quarter of 2022 were completed. The forecast results showed a small relative error compared to the actual data. Thus, when forecasting the trade balance between countries using the Holt-Winters model, the relative prediction errors were: for October 2021 – 1.3%; for November 2021 – 2.6%; for December 2021 – 0.4%.

Keywords: export; import; trade balance; ARIMA*ARIMAS; Holt-Winters models; forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aid:journl:v:5:y:2022:i:2:p:7-23

DOI: 10.34021/ve.2022.05.02(1)

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