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THE MONETARY POLICY TRANSMISSION MECHANISM IN THE EMERGENT COUNTRIES, AN ANALYSIS BASED ON THE AUTOREGRESSIVE VECTOR

Cristi Spulbar (), Oana Gherghinescu and Mihai Niţoi, PhD Student,
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Mihai Niţoi, PhD Student,: University of Craiova

Annals of University of Craiova - Economic Sciences Series, 2009, vol. 1, issue 37, 164-172

Abstract: The integration in the euro area implies a unique monetary policy for the countries from this area. The implementation of a restrictive monetary policy by ECB in order to counter-balance the inflationist pressures could compromise the real convergence process of the euro area new members, while a relaxed monetary policy, adopted to stimulate the economy, can lead to an overheating of the developing economies. Therefore, within this article we proposed to realize an evaluation of the monetary policy transmission channels in the countries from Central and Eastern Europe. For this reason we utilized a model based on the autoregressive vector methodology. From an economical point of view, our model underlines the heterogeneity of the monetary policy transmission mechanism within the four member states of the European Union, in future a homogenization of monetary policies being necessary. In default of a sustainable and efficient economic model, an early adoption of the single currency can create major dysfunctionalities for these countries. Thus, they will not be able to stimulate the economy through the interest rate or through the exchange rate, policies frequently utilized at present.

Keywords: VAR model; monetary policy transmission; euro area; emergent countries (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O20 O23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
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