The Influence of the Regional Sectoral Structure on the Socio-Economic Development of Primorye Region

K. G. Sorokozherdyev and K. A. Khodosov

Journal of Applied Economic Research, 2020, vol. 19, issue 1, 60-78

Abstract: The paper analyzes the influence of the regional sectoral structure on the socio-economic development of the Primorye region. The subject of the research is the socio-economic development of the region. The purpose of the research is to analyze the role of the regional sectoral structure and each of its sectors separately in the socio-economic development of the region. The study examines industries such as agriculture, mining, manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail trade, hotels and restaurants, as well as the financial sector. The socio-economic development of the region is represented by such metrics as the average monthly wage per employee, the regional GRP and the birth rate. In this work, a regression model of the dependence of indicators of socio-economic development on the shares of the mentioned sectors of the regional economy in GRP is built. As a result, an autoregressive model with distributed lag (ADL-model) was obtained. The model reflects the relationship of endogenous indicators - average wages, GRP and the birth rate from economic activity in certain sectors of the regional economy. An important point is that exogenous indicators in the equations can be taken both directly for the corresponding period and with a time shift (lag), which is a feature of the ADL model. The results of the study make it possible to forecast the socio-economic development of the region for the medium term. The studies can be also applied in a scenario-based approach modeling the development of the region depending on the development of a particular sector of the regional economy. On the whole, the model makes it possible to evaluate the contribution of industries to the main indicators of socio-economic development, which can be useful also in the drafting of a regional development strategy.

Keywords: socio-economic development; regional sectoral structure; Primorye region (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: L11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aiy:jnjaer:v:19:y:2020:i:1:p:60-78

DOI: 10.15826/vestnik.2020.19.1.004

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