The Influence of Demographic Processes on Social Dynamics in Developed Countries

Ksenia A. Subkhangulova

Journal of Applied Economic Research, 2025, vol. 24, issue 3, 816-842

Abstract: The relevance of the study stems from the urgency of demographic challenges in modern developed states, as well as the significance of their impact on the social well-being of the population. The research objective is to identify causal relationships between demographic and social dynamics. The hypothesis suggests that an increase in socio-demographic indicators such as natural population change rate, life expectancy, and demographic dividends will have a positive effect on the Social Progress Index (SPI). The study employs regression analysis of panel data. The methodology is based on the theory of demographic transition and combines the use of methods of comparative theoretical with statistical and econometric analysis of data from international organizations and the expert community. The results show a more significant impact of demographic indicators on the SPI. Variables such as life expectancy, the consumption-income gap among the elderly and the first dividend index have a direct impact on the SPI. The rate of natural change has exhibited an inverse relationship for the index. The interpretation of the obtained estimates suggests a positive impact of increased life expectancy on further social development - likely driven by the high level of development of health care and education systems in developed countries. The study also highlights the benefits of the first demographic dividend in the social sphere, while indicating a disconnect with the second demographic dividend. Furthermore, the study underscores the potential for improving social security even under conditions of depopulation and cautions against premature assumptions about the active participation of older people (65+) in improving social progress. The theoretical contribution of this research lies in complementing studies on social development by quantifying the impact of demographic factors. The practical significance lies in the fact that the results of the study can be used to further, in-depth analysis of the influence of various factors on social development in the context of individual countries, as well as in the design of social policy of the state, taking into account the evolving demographic reality.

Keywords: Social Progress Index; life expectancy; rate of natural change; demographic dividend index; social and economic dynamics. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C23 E27 J11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aiy:jnjaer:v:24:y:2025:i:3:p:816-842

DOI: 10.15826/vestnik.2025.24.3.027

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