Brexit: The end or the beginning of a long road

Balázs H. Váradi (), Tímea Várnai () and Barnabás Virág ()
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Balázs H. Váradi: Magyar Nemzeti Bank, Budapest
Tímea Várnai: Magyar Nemzeti Bank, Budapest
Barnabás Virág: Magyar Nemzeti Bank, Budapest

Acta Oeconomica, 2016, vol. 66, issue supplement1, 93-110

Abstract: Globalisation and the loosening of credit conditions have led to an increase in income and wealth inequalities in the developed economies. The 2008–2009 crisis has forced a deleveraging process, leading to a prolonged recovery due to further demand cuts. The protracted economic problems and the inadequate management of economic policy in the EU increased social discontent that may have eventually contributed to Brexit. The short- and long-run impacts of the decision are difficult to judge, given that the details of the exit process cannot yet be known. Currently, there is a consensus among analysts that the negative economic effects could be greater in the UK in the short term. However, in the longer term, the UK may benefit from a potentially more flexible economic policy framework, while socio-political and economic risks are imposed on the European economy by the secondary effects due to its structural problems and the uncertain future of its institutional system. As a small open economy, Hungary highly depends on the economic performance of its foreign trade partners. We have found that the economic impact of Brexit on Hungary remains moderate. Among the direct channels, the foreign trade channel may be the dominant. Meanwhile, the reduction of EU funds and remittances will affect the Hungarian growth only modestly. Hungary’s vulnerability has improved substantially since the 2008–2009 crisis. Accordingly, potential second-round effects of Brexit may remain subdued and be mitigated through substantial room for manoeuvre for economic policies.

Keywords: Brexit; European Union; policy co-ordination; financial crises; fiscal policy; wage inequalities (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E02 E61 E62 G01 J31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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