Coronavirus: what is expecting Russian economy and foreign trade

Vladimir Petrovich Obolenskiy
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Vladimir Petrovich Obolenskiy: Institute of Economics Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

Russian Foreign Economic Journal, 2020, issue 5, 67-76

Abstract: Estimates of the possible impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the global and Russian economies, on world trade and foreign trade of Russia made by domestic and foreign think tanks, international economic organizations are presented. It is emphasized that the COVID-19 pandemic threatens the global economy with a slide into a large-scale crisis that may be deeper than the 2008-2009 recession. The measures announced by the Russian government aimed at stopping the epidemic and supporting banks, enterprises and citizens are considered. It is shown that before the outbreak of the coronavirus epidemic in China and the outbreak of the epidemic in Russia at the beginning of this year there were already obvious signs of the upcoming crisis in foreign trade. It is concluded that we should expect a serious drop in exports and foreign purchases of various products, tourism and transportation services in the second and third quarters. Under these conditions, complex issues might arise hampering implementation of the national project for exports growth and provision of enterprises with imported raw materials, materials and components as domestic production is not sufficient to satisfy the needs of the Russian market.

Keywords: Coronavirus; assessments of the impact on the world and Russian economies; government support for business; government support for citizens; GDP growth; foreign trade trends. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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