Foreign Trade of Russia amid and after the Pandemic

Vladimir Petrovich Obolenskiy
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Vladimir Petrovich Obolenskiy: Institute of Economics Russian Academy of Sciences

Russian Foreign Economic Journal, 2020, issue 10, 7-17

Abstract: Estimates of the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on global trade and foreign trade of Russia are given. The article analyzes the quarterly changes in Russia's exports and imports of goods and services and demonstrates rather quick recovery in the second half of 2020 after the plunge in April-June 2020. Attention is drawn to the fact that the tumbling exports resulted in almost a twofold decrease in the current account surplus and the decline in foreign exchange earnings and weaker rouble, which may affect adversely the imports of raw materials and components. Prospects for meeting the state foreign trade estimates for the next three years that might be constrained by both the impact of the pandemic on the domestic economy and external factors - volatility of world prices, the on-going escalation of protectionism and trade wars, sanctions of Western countries against Russia are assessed.

Keywords: pandemic; world trade; Russia’s foreign trade; dynamics of exports and imports; forecast; constraining factors (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:alq:rufejo:rfej_2020_10_7-17

DOI: 10.24411/2072-8042-2020-10097

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