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Forecasting Agricultural Production: A Chaotic Dynamic Approach

Bunyamin Demir, Nesrin Alptekin, Yilmaz Kilicaslan (), Mehmet Ergen and Nilgun Caglairmak Uslu
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Bunyamin Demir: Anadolu University, Department of Mathematics
Nesrin Alptekin: Anadolu University, Department of Management
Mehmet Ergen: Anadolu University, Department of Mathematics
Nilgun Caglairmak Uslu: Anadolu University, Department of Economics

World Journal of Applied Economics, 2015, vol. 1, issue 1, 65-80

Abstract: The aim of this study is to examine the existence of chaotic structure in agricultural production in Turkey by using Chaotic Dynamic Analysis (CDA) and to provide accurate forecasts of agricultural production. The data of wheat, barley and rice production in Turkey obtained from Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT) covers the period of 1991 to 2009. Our analysis shows that the supply of the selected agricultural products has a chaotic structure. Our dynamic system constructed predicted the supply of year 2010 with % 0.5 error for wheat, %5 error for barley, and %2.5 error ratio for rice. This study is the first attempt using CDA to forecast future agricultural product supply in Turkey. The findings of this study will help to produce effective policies to prevent supply disequilibrium, and excess price fluctuations.

Keywords: Chaotic dynamic analysis; lyapunov exponent; deterministic nonlinear prediction; agriculture; Turkey (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C60 C61 Q11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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