DOES TWIN DEFICITS RELATIONSHIP AFFECT THE LEADING INDICATORS OF CRISIS? ANALYSIS OF THE US AND TURKEY IN LIGHT OF THE 2008 GLOBAL CRISIS

Tulin Tunc Deveci and Suleyman Degirmen ()
Additional contact information
Suleyman Degirmen: Ankara University

Anadolu University Journal of Social Sciences, 2013, vol. 13, issue 2, 1-14

Abstract: Many theoretical and empirical researches have been written on the issue of crises often experienced by developing countries since the early 1990s. Moreover, the 2007 crisis started in the US has taken its place as a global crisis in the literature because of the most spreading crisis over the World since the 1929 Great Depression, and also experienced by a developed and powerful country. Crises have been predicted by advanced early warning systems according to movements in some macroeconomic variables. Unfortunately, that financial crisis mostly attached to speculative activities has complicated its prediction. In this paper, the relationship of twin deficits with crisis for the US and Turkey is analyzed by cointegration and granger causality tests along with computed speculative pressure index, in shed of the 2008 Global Crisis. Finally, it has been reached to uncertain results for Tukey while twin deficits is certainly effective for the US economy.

Keywords: Financial Crises; Leading Indicators; Twin Deficits; Cointegration and Granger Causality Tests. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E20 F32 G01 H62 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.anadolu.edu.tr/arastirma/hakemli_dergil ... 013_2/2013-02-01.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:and:journl:v:13:y:2013:i:2:p:1-14

Access Statistics for this article

Anadolu University Journal of Social Sciences is currently edited by Ramazan Geylan

More articles in Anadolu University Journal of Social Sciences from Anadolu University Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Social Sciences Institute ( this e-mail address is bad, please contact ).