Revisiting the Exports and Economic Growth Nexus: Rolling Window Cointegration and Causality Evidence from Cote d’Ivoire, Malaysia, Pakistan and South Africa

Yaya Keho ()

Asian Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, 2019, vol. 6, issue 1, 27-35

Abstract: This paper reexamines the relationship between exports and economic growth in Cote d’Ivoire, Malaysia, Pakistan and South Africa using time-varying cointegration and causality tests. The cointegration results suggest that exports, investment in physical capital and GDP move together in the long-run in the four countries. Furthermore, the full sample Granger causality tests support the export-led growth hypothesis for Malaysia and Pakistan, and the growth-led exports hypothesis for South Africa. However, the rolling window cointegration and causality tests show that the long-run and also the causal relationships between exports and GDP are time-varying. For most time periods we do not find any causal relationship between exports and GDP. There are, however, sub-periods during which unidirectional or bidirectional causal relations were found. Therefore, export-promoting strategies are not always effective tools to stimulate economic growth.

Keywords: Exports; Economic growth; Rolling window regression; Causality; Cointegration; Export-led growth; Growth-led exports. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aoj:ajeaer:v:6:y:2019:i:1:p:27-35:id:263

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